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Major Anomaly In Chandler's Wobble - 2005/2006

last revised February 8, 2006

The Earth’s Wobble Has Paused
What this portends, no one knows.

(ECB – February 8, 2006, MWM) For at least three and a half weeks there has been almost no movement of the spin axis in the normal spiral track of Chandler’s Wobble.  See an extensive analysis of the pause in the wobble as of February 8, 2006 at the website.  It is also being sent to subscribers via email directly after this Bulletin.

 For the past 21 days there has been no discernable wobble motion in the Earth.  Have we come to a profound change in the geophysics of the Earth?  Why this sudden change in what usually has been for the past 100 years or more a fairly regular, fairly predictable wobble track.

As is well known, the wobble is generated by the differential pulling of the Moon and the Sun on the Earth's equatorial bulge (and any other concentrations of mass in or on the Earth).  This differential pulling is caused by the oblique angles of the orbital planes which bring the Sun and the Moon alternatively above and below the equator, thus tending through orbital time to push one side of the Earth or the other to move faster or slower than the other side to the North or to the South.

The Earth's Wobble has a 7 year cycle which produces two extremes, a small spiraling wobble circle and a large spiraling wobble circle, about 3.5 years apart.  The Earth was  in October 2005 moving into the small spiraling circle (the MIN phase of the wobble), which should have slowly unfolded during 2006 and the first few months of 2007.  (Each spiraling circle takes about 14 months).

But suddenly at the beginning of November 2005,  the track of the location of the spin axis veered at a very sharp right angle to its circling motion.  The track of the spin axis began to slow down and by about January 8, 2006, it ceased nearly all relative motion on the x and y coordinates which are used to define the daily changing location of the spin axis.

One can see this effect by looking at the graphs on this page:

http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/topten_monitor.htm


Scroll down to the x and y plots.  They graphs have become nearly flat line on the right hand side.  They SHOULD be flowing downward to complete the wave to look like the previous ones (only smaller).

 Another way to see the current pause in the wobble is to look at the X and Y plot measurements directly.  The graph necessarily truncates the nuances.  In this table below concern yourself only with X  and Y columns.  On the top two lines you see a.  Both values are declining to ZERO because the location of the spin axis is returning to both axis.  The Y is correct, the X should actually be increasing slightly but very slowly for at least another few months.  From Jan 15, notice the Y column values are decreasing, then increasing, then decreasing, now increasing, back and forth. 

 THE POLE ALMOST NEVER SEESAWS LIKE THIS.  I HAVE LOOKED AT YEARS AND YEARS AND YEARS OF THE Y COLUMN AND IT DOES NOT HEM AND HAW LIKE THIS.  The X column is doing the same thing.  The movement in both columns as of today is in the wrong direction for the traditional phase cycle of the wobble which we WERE once in.  There have been some unstable periods in the wobble during the 20th century.  Do not let these cloud your mind to the trends in the phenomenon which is currently underway.

         Date    MJD      x        y      UT1-UTC       LOD        dPsi   dEpsilon

                          "        "         s           s          "         "

     (0h UTC)

   YEAR ==> 2006

  JAN   1  53736 0.052709 0.383353 0.3388311   0.0001216   -0.05639 -0.00190

  JAN   2  53737 0.051793 0.383017 0.3385947   0.0003526   -0.05611 -0.00180

  JAN   3  53738 0.050972 0.382761 0.3381127   0.0006065   -0.05599 -0.00168

  JAN   4  53739 0.050177 0.382445 0.3373991   0.0008168   -0.05608 -0.00157

  JAN   5  53740 0.049609 0.382083 0.3365207   0.0009367   -0.05634 -0.00150

  JAN   6  53741 0.049500 0.381782 0.3355770   0.0009434   -0.05669 -0.00142

  JAN   7  53742 0.049573 0.381661 0.3346792   0.0008273   -0.05700 -0.00133

  JAN   8  53743 0.049511 0.381595 0.3339518   0.0006060   -0.05721 -0.00127

  JAN   9  53744 0.049508 0.381315 0.3334770   0.0003346   -0.05727 -0.00128

  JAN  10  53745 0.049577 0.381166 0.3332746   0.0000731   -0.05716 -0.00138

  JAN  11  53746 0.049267 0.381049 0.3333098  -0.0001297   -0.05697 -0.00158

  JAN  12  53747 0.048764 0.380707 0.3335059  -0.0002444   -0.05672 -0.00181

  JAN  13  53748 0.048541 0.380365 0.3337684  -0.0002647   -0.05644 -0.00201

  JAN  14  53749 0.048676 0.380021 0.3340080  -0.0001818   -0.05618 -0.00212

  JAN  15  53750 0.049214 0.379772 0.3341109  -0.0000490   -0.05595 -0.00212

  JAN  16  53751 0.049946 0.379688 0.3340935   0.0000770   -0.05574 -0.00199

  JAN  17  53752 0.050409 0.379968 0.3339542   0.0002326   -0.05555 -0.00177

  JAN  18  53753 0.050619 0.380401 0.3336350   0.0004321   -0.05539 -0.00152

  JAN  19  53754 0.050710 0.380720 0.3331043   0.0005583   -0.05528 -0.00131

  JAN  20  53755 0.050509 0.380980 0.3325376   0.0006274   -0.05528 -0.00120

  JAN  21  53756 0.050244 0.381109 0.3318710   0.0006876   -0.05547 -0.00123

  JAN  22  53757 0.050166 0.381263 0.3311842   0.0006750   -0.05579 -0.00140

  JAN  23  53758 0.050240 0.380714 0.3305410   0.0006090   -0.05617 -0.00167

  JAN  24  53759 0.050294 0.380178 0.3299808   0.0005166   -0.05651 -0.00194

  JAN  25  53760 0.050201 0.380318 0.3295114   0.0004285   -0.05662 -0.00216

  JAN  26  53761 0.050145 0.380582 0.3291098   0.0003840   -0.05661 -0.00231

  JAN  27  53762 0.050328 0.380716 0.3287090   0.0003912   -0.05652 -0.00242

  JAN  28  53763 0.050710 0.380997 0.3282786   0.0004706   -0.05743 -0.00217

  JAN  29  53764 0.051145 0.381356 0.3277198   0.0006873   -0.05707 -0.00228

  JAN  30  53765 0.051469 0.381702 0.3268751   0.0010048   -0.05650 -0.00207

  JAN  31  53766 0.051558 0.382247 0.3257143   0.0013117   -0.05621 -0.00176

  FEB   1  53767 0.051342 0.383014 0.3242892   0.0015223   -0.05631 -0.00167

  FEB   2  53768 0.050796 0.383767 0.3227275   0.0015843   -0.05658 -0.00179

  FEB   3  53769 0.050059 0.384103 0.3211785   0.0015023   -0.05686 -0.00190

  FEB   4  53770 0.050323 0.384450 0.3197638   0.0012791   -0.05716 -0.00190

  FEB   5  53771 0.050218 0.384624 0.3186302   0.0009450   -0.05744 -0.00193

  FEB   6  53772 0.051168 0.384215 0.3178008   0.0006709   -0.05757 -0.00210

  FEB   7  53773 0.051004 0.384678 0.3172254   0.0004621   -0.05751 -0.00232

 
The IERS computer is still gamely insisting that the wobble spiral will recover and look close to what it had predicted several months ago.  Impossible. This anomaly has gone too far.  There is no recovery of the old pattern though the track could recover to some extent. Too much time has passed and the wobble has paused for too long.  A new pattern is clearly emerging which will include an abrupt early end to the old wobble cycle and the spontaneous early generation of a new cycle.

What that pattern is cannot be described at the moment.

The current cessation is clearly the result of a strong contending vector of push or pull which is counteracting the driving forces of the Sun and Moon.   Since orbital motions have not changed in any significant way, these orbiting influences are the same as they always have been.  The “change” in gravitational vectors (or spin vectors) MUST be in the Earth, somewhere or somehow.  What is this shift?

 I can find two candidates. There may be others. One is in the Indian Ocean.  As a result of the Great Rupture off Sumatra during late December 2004 and early 2005 (thousands of earthquakes occurred in that area including dozens of 6.0 plus quakes and at least three great quakes above 7.0), there was substantial uplifting, downwarping, and lateral movement in the two tectonic plates which ruptured their mutual junction.  Could  have enough downwarping occurred to drive enough of the Indian ocean plate deep enough at this junction on the equator to create an “anchoring” disruption in the spin motion of the equatorial belt of the Earth relative to the wobbling Spin Axis?  In other words, has enough Indian Ocean bottom plate sunk deeply enough into the liquid mantle to cause a slight drag on the spin of the equator sufficient to offset the effect of the gravity vectors of the Sun and Moon which produce the wobble spirals?

 Another candidate I can find is the rapid shift in the location of True Magnetic North Pole.  It is now driving to the Spin Axis at the rate of 40 kilometers per year, according to geophysicists in Canada, after accelerating gradually since the mid-1930’s.   This is not a spurious nor trivial change. Something profound stirs literally in the depths of the Earth.  Mass polarization and electron flow have to change somewhere in the Earth in large quantities to produce this shift in the True Magnetic North Pole.  One elementary way to see this is as “circuits” of electrical flow that have changed orientation inside the Earth.  Only a change in actual MASS relationships can produce this circuit change.  Since this is electromagnetism, we know we are looking at changes in the heavy metals, primarily the nickel-iron.  What the change is, is anyone’s guess.  Whatever,  the result we can observe in the changing position of True Magnetic North. Has THIS mass change produced the counter force which has neutralized the wobble?

 I have no way at the present to make a determination.  Perhaps both factors, and others, come into play.  Or perhaps the explanation lies somewhere else entirely.  It is far too soon to tell and this pattern is too anomalous to compare with the past.

 The average computed annual shift in the average location of the Spin Axis is more or less officially recognized by default at the IERS as about 12.4 centimeters per year for the full count of the 20th century.  My count (which is a dead-reckoning method of finding the locus of the MIN spirals every seven years and measuring the distance between them) is at about 14.7 centimeters per year, from 1916 onwards (there was no detectable drift before between 1857 and about 1916 by my method).

The current shape of the wobble looks as if it is curling up into a very small MIN spiral, has reached the end of the spiral and is now poised with almost no net motion, waiting for time to catch up with it until it begins to unwind in a new outward spiral to commence a new cycle in the wobble.  This could give the appearance of being a spontaneous sudden shift in the tempo, phase, and locus of the Wobble. Or, remember the now old-fashioned record players?  The needle has suddenly jumped much closer to the center.

If this “appearance” pans out into reality, there appears to be a strong case to be made for a sudden 278 centimeter shift in the average location of the Spin Axis during the past six years,  which will give you an average annual shift of about 46 centimeters, very nearly at 3.5 times the professionally imputed IERS rate.  It is at about 2.5 times my dead reckoning rate of 14.7 cm/yr.

More deeply, the greater portion of this net motion apparently occurred within the past few months, not over the course of the previous six years.

In any event, we may have livid proof in front of our eyes of Cayce’s famous prediction about the shifting of the poles.  During the 1930’s he predicted, in answering questions about future changes which would impact humanity, that a shifting of the poles, or a new cycle would begin, in the years 2000/2001, eventually to culminate in catastrophic upheavals.

We are very close on Cayce’s schedule.  In fact, this current wobble cycle began in 1999/2000 and is closing or terminating abruptly leaving us hanging in mid-air so to speak, waiting for the outstretched ballerina of the Earth to regain her sense of balance after an ambitious leap…

which….

she may be unable to do….

This may be the beginning of an escalating slide, one which may take many more years, even a couple more decades, to fully play out.  I hope a couple more decades.  I am not ready. Are you?

Given the profound seriousness of all this I have spend the last several days pouring over my tables and graphs of polar motion, especially the circular plots. I have tried to compare them in a systematic way to come to a 100 year perspective.  This is not easily done and in fact is impossible without a deep dive into the attics of geophysics which are not on the Iway.  The data series is just not adequate.

One of the main limitations is that all polar coordinates and trend data prior to 1962 is based on 20 points per year.  Wobble tracker does not extrapolating circular and spiraling lines from these, it is too literal minded, thus most of the plots it makes for pre-1962 spirals come out quite kinky.  Excel software does a reasonable job some of the time, except when the wobble actually is kinky.  Then the software magnifies the kinks so much it makes the plots worthless. By this “kinky” method, the anomalies are easy to spot but you can’t really compare them.  You can’t even really define exactly what they are from the 20 points per year (a little more than 2 weeks of time).  So prior to 1962 is out.

Prior to 1890 is even worse, they data series are all based on 10 points.  That makes a good part of the track for each 7 year cycle look like a spaghetti bowl.

After 1962 we get a lot better plot based on daily data.  In this data I can find periods of four serious anomalies.  By looking at them carefully, I cannot find the sharp veering and sustained hesitation we have seen this past two plus months..  I can find two severely dented MIN spiral phases between 1962 and 1980, but they always seem to perpetuate forward motion with backsliding on just one of the XY numbers.  In other words, the X number may go backward in magnitude, but the Y number keeps on trucking.  And vice verse. And, these dents are not as deep as the current turn into the center of spiral.  So in sharpness, depth, and in sustained pause, this current anomaly is greater than all of the wobbles we can compare with daily data.

Comparison yields two other relevant factoids.  One interesting pattern which emerges from comparing all of the spirals since 1962 is the apparent growing reluctance of the Earth to wobble in a certain direction. Progressively, a greater and greater amount of disturbance appears in the evenness of the track of the wobble in ONE particular quadrant of the Earth. The track line of the wobble tends to get jerkier between Long. 0 degrees (the X Axis, otherwise known as Greenwich Meridian) and Long. West 90 degrees (the Y Axis).  We can call this quadrant the Greenland/Atlantic Quadrant of the Earth.

 Keep in mind this is the direction of the wobble track, not the direction of motion of the Earth, which I will decode below.

 ALL the spiral tracks in this quadrant get rougher and rougher through to the present time.  This is not a MIN nor MAX phenomenon.  This happens every 14 months.  By decoding this we are now in a position to better define major tectonic change seasons. And the ultimate avalanche of the crust.

 Will you be surprised to learn that THIS is the quadrant of the Earth which has currently locked up the wobble?  Fans of Cayce who have read “The Prophecies”, are you surprised that we have found a trend in polar motion tending towards greater instability? 

 In this light, the greatest similarity with the current anomaly is the anomaly which began in 1998 and continued through 2000.  Deja Vous!  That was the first major topic of the Earth Changes Bulletin.  It seemed to disappear and I spaced it out, getting distracted by the Imperial coup d’etat which seized control of American government.

 Its back. If you look at the wobble track for 1999 you can see that the wobble track during that year showed a similar hesitation with some flat lining of the graphs while it dotted the track with a small zone of repeating circles.  That zone and the current zone are the only such zones in the past 45 years.  A definite intensification of a trend in the changes of the earth.  Another spectacular hit by Edgar Cayce.  The beginning of a new cycle in the shifting of the poles….

 What does this tell us?  There is a lot to think about here.  But most obviously the Earth’s crust meets an opposing vector when it attempts to move in a certain direction.  Since the wobble track is opposite to the motion of the Earth’s crust, do a mental reversal and it is easy to see that the Earth meets an opposition which is resisting its motion in the direction of Alaska/Siberia.  The crust more easily gyrates to bring the pole closer towards Greenland/England/Northwestern Europe than away from it.    This resistance has generated an increasingly jerky wobble track as it moves toward England in the Greenland Quadrant and it has now generated an exceptionally large relapse of the direction of the wobble track away from England.  Or, in crustal motion, the Earth’s crust has suddenly jerked back towards Greenland/England, which is a typical “hunting” episode for a better balancing of the force vectors.  Presently the crust is in a temporary equipoise and is not moving at all!!!

 As stated, this appears to be the largest “hunt” in 45 years and so also with the “pause”.

 A now old friend called me as I sat working on my keyboard this past weekend wondering these issues, pondering all of this relatively fast breaking news, wondering how to work this into the final new edition copy of “The Prophecies”, in the chapters where I verify the omen trends for the Changes In The Earth, wondering specifically how “apparent” or how “real” this sudden change in the wobble is and how I should handle it in copy I will have to live with for the next 30 years (I do not intend to re-edit it). 

 She is a very psychic woman who goes by the name of Hotno, who lives very remotely in the vast interior of Canada, a veritable spirit guide in the woods.  She is a Nativist and one of her son’s is a software engineer in France.  She found me on the Iway while I still was working in Redmond on the first drafts of the Trilogy in 1997.  She is a devotee of Cayce, has been to Egypt which she examined in detail to recall her past life there, and offers spirit guide counseling among many other things.  She began to spontaneously call me every few months and began to offer more and more suggestions which gradually took the form of quick spontaneous readings – messages only in response to the issues of the time, never was I able to question.  I was not particularly open to this form of communication.  But gradually I began to get that she tuned into things and could relay useful information, without knowing anything at all about the issue or the topic. I become especially impressed in 2000 after I had finished drawing up my scenarios for how the pole shift would impact North America.  She sent me maps and text which she had put on paper years before and asked me what to do with it.  She called me on the phone and explained it.  I astounded at the parallelism between her scenario for North America, esp. Canada, and what I had seen on my beach ball globe and had written up.

 Neither of us had seen each other’s work nor discussed it.  It all paralleled precisely. This was a certain form of validation, actually quite powerful, at least of a connection.

 We got a lot chummier on the phone off and on during the past five years and she has validated her readings with me in many ways.  They are never what I want to hear, sometimes they irritated me, but they always have some remarkable validity and point to things I need to do, or should do, or validate something about what I am doing.

 So when she calls, I listen, and am no longer irritated.  She always has a reason, a message. Sitting at my keyboard pondering what to conclude,  we chatted for awhile and than I finally tell her what is going on with the poles.  I describe everything I see in the charts, such as I have described above but not nearly in so much detail..  She has no computer currently, has not been on the Iway for the past year. But she knows my work and she hears what I say.  She goes into her trance reading mode spontaneously.  This is roughly what she tells me:

 The Wobble as it was is gone as is the previous age.  All that which has been gestating, forming up to manifest in the prophecies will break through quickly now, at all levels, in your life, in your books, and in the changes in the earth.  What you have been working towards, visualizing, all breaking through now.  Finish up what you have in process, do nothing else new with your material, let all else fall away.

 The change to come in the wobble pattern will not be evident for two more months. It will seem to be in limbo even though a new pattern is already beginning.  After four months, the new pattern will begin to be evident even to those who do not understand the change in the earth.  The consequences will begin to come in about 7 to 14 months,  major upheavals will begin and progressively build, leading eventually to the radical shifting of the poles.  It is all real, you are entering the shift real time.  Get with it and proceed accordingly.

 That was the message.  I send you this information because there is enough specificity here which can be validated.  Watch…but not for too long.  Let us hope we have a couple of decades to adjust into this change.  Even with that, nothing will be easy.  We will have a planet of angry jumping jack natives running around in many variations of the famed Chinese Fire-drill.  Some will still be playing Cowboys and Indians.

(ECB – February 1, 2006, MWM) For two weeks now there has been almost no movement of the spin axis. The track of the wobble for the past two weeks has added almost nothing to last week's graph which is shown below (at the linked site - see the January 18 note). 

ECB - January 25, 2006, MWM) There has been almost no movement of the spin axis since the last report. The track of the wobble for the past week has added nothing to last week's graph which is shown below.  See the January 18 note.  The phase and magnitude of Chandler's Wobble is undergoing a profound shift. I suspect this lack of movement is an awesome portent of sudden tectonic changes, judging by the results of the last major anomaly in the movement of the spin axis during 1934-1938.   If tectonic activity mirrors that period in the coming years, we will see two periods of major increase in tectonic activity   One period will be for about 14 months when the spin axis does continue its progression of movement into the next 7 year X WAVE cycle of Chandler's Wobble. This first spiral turn will produce a major increase in volcanic activity, possibly by as much as as 100% over last year or even more. This 14 month spiral turn should also produce a similar increase in general earthquake activity in the Northern Arc of the Pacific Rim of Fire - should be unusually strong  in Japan, Alaska, California. This means from now through to the middle of 2007.  Then for the next some 14-16 years, world earthquake activity 7.0 plus should be double that of the general yearly average.  Please note that this doubling of activity 7.0 plus during the next 14 years will be on top of the general trend of increase in earthquake activity in the 3.0 to 7.0 range, which is increasing in the range of 50% per decade. These numbers are uncertain and are not predictions, but they do reveal a range of realistic possibility based on the averages of the past.  An acceleration in this range over the base of the past few years would doubtless substantially increase destruction of human habitats.  The first surge may come in as little as 90 days but is probably not all that likely during the next lunar period.

A NEW CYCLE IN THE SHIFTING OF THE EARTH’S SPIN AXIS IS OCCURRING AND WE CAN AWARD EDGAR CAYCE WITH ONE OF THE BIGGEST CLAIRVOYANT HITS OF ALL TIME.  I AM GOING TO REVISE THE SCORE NUMBERS FOR CAYCE IN THE TRILOGY. I AM GOING TO LEAVE THE NUMBERS THE SAME IN BOOKS ONE AND TWO, PARTLY FOR HISTORICAL INTEREST, BUT I AM GOING TO MAKE AN ADDENDUM IN BOOK THREE AND COMPUTE A NEW SCOREBOARD FOR CAYCE.

I expect that now the Earth’s Wobble will become more and more eccentric in response to its obvious mass-instability. A significant phase shift will show a much faster rate of displacement than the previous century and this rate of displacement is likely to continue to accelerate. The end result will be a “pole shift”, as is said in the pop press, or more accurately, an avalanche of the crust will be the end result.   Having said this, it is impossible to guess at the moment how this is grinding out.

(ECB - January 18, 2006, MWM) There is a relatively large, developing anomaly in the spiraling motion of the spin axis, including an huge phase shift, a shortening of the length of the normal 7 year cycle, the tightening of the spiral motion into an exceptionally small spiral, and a major acceleration in the drift of the Spin Axis (secular drift of the poles, or so-called True Polar Wander).  This anomaly is on-going and portends major changes in tectonic activity during ensuing years.

 

This rather large anomaly began in the Earth's Wobble (in so-called Chandler's Wobble) approximately November 1, 2005. The current spiral of polar motion (the track of the changing location of the Spin Axis in its regular 14 month wobble around its average location) has abruptly made a 90 degree "turn" to create a very small or tight "turn" in the spiral of the daily plot of the motion of the Spin Axis. This current spiral turn can be seen in red in the graph above.  It began approximately November 1 and is still on-going. This anomalous turn is the smallest spiral which has ever appeared in Chandler's Wobble since reliable plots began to be drawn in 1900.  It is currently at least one third of the average size for this phase (MIN PHASE) of the 7 year cycle in Chandler's Wobble..

The anomaly appears as a sudden phase shift (frequency change) in the 7 year X WAVE cycle of the Wobble.  The Spin Axis spins through a succession of spiral circles which increase in size for about 3.5 years and then decrease in sze for about 3.5 years.  Known as the Chandler Amplitude, the  MAX and MIN spirals are easy to identify, as can be seen in the diagram above.  The oldest spiral circle in the diagram is the MIN track for 1999.  The largest  spiral circle is for 2002/2003. The Spin Axis has apparently entered into its MINIMUM wobble size some ten months early, thus abruptly shortening the 7 year length of the X WAVE cycle in the wobble.  This phase shift can also be thought of as a sudden increase in the frequency of the wobble.   (This seven year cycle is called the X WAVE cycle in my work because the spirals are plotted on graphs as a wave using the X axis dimension).

Normally, the red line in the diagram would be nearly horizontal at this time in its cycle, tracking to the right of the diagram.  It should be tracking to move roughly horizontal to the right about three more grid lines (each grid line is equivalent to 5.1 feet or 0.05 arcsecond or 50 mas or 1.55 meters) during the course of the next eight months.  QUITE OBVIOUSLY IT IS NOT GOING TO MAKE IT.  NOT EVEN CLOSE.

At the current time the nearly vertical plot of the Spin Axis (as shown in red) is moving somewhat slowly at approximately a 20 to 25 degree angle to the X Axis (computed by  averaging through a protractor).  This equates to movement along Longitude East 160 to 155 as determined by "dead-reckoning".

Of course this apparent motion is an illusion.  The Spin Axis is not really moving, it stays oriented to the same fixed stars.  It is really the crust of the Earth which is moving, sliding over the Spin Axis, moving from Longitude East 155-160 down towards Longitude West 20-25. Since this is nearly a 2.5 month track (the red portion), the crust of the Earth is actually wobbling or changing the actual location of the Spin Axis quite slowly compared to its more aggressive spirals, which can be see in the much larger black circular tracks.  Each complete spiral turn into a completed circle normally takes about 14 months, regardless of the size of the spiral.

BUT, comparatively, the average location of the Spin Axis is being radically changed at a very high rate of speed, .  The tight, 90 degree turn is creating a dramatic acceleration in the drift of the average location of the Spin Axis (secular drift of the pole or so-called True Polar Wander).

The speed of the drift for the first 90 years of the 20th century was estimated by geophysicists who contributed to the work of the IERS (International Earth Rotation Service) to average out at 10.2 centimeters per year.  This number is widely supported by geophysicists as can be seen by this quote from "The Prophecies":

"numbers computed by Gross and Vondraik for the period 1900 to 1992.  They estimated a direction of W79.2 with a rate of 33 feet per century (which is 10.05 centimeters/year.  More recently, Zhigen Yang, a Chinese scholar, presented a poster calculation for proceedings on “Space Astronomy Survey and Earth Dynamics” for  the Chinese Geophysical Society (see www.cgs.org.cn/event/16(14).htm) which finds a rate of True Polar Wander at  .003356 arcsecond per year (10.4 centimeters) in a direction of Longitude W78.7 ± 2.5 degrees.  This is in close agreement with the 1988 calculations by Moritz and Mueller and the 1996 numbers by Gross and Vondraik."

When the rate of drift of the average location of the Spin Axis (which is the center point of the spiral tracks, as seen in the diagram) is computed for the entire 20th century, an acceleration appears to be noticable, most likely as a consequence of the addition of numbers from the 1990's.  This is summarized in "The Prophecies":

"Perhaps even more convincing are calculations made by Joachim Hopfner in a technical paper for the IERS consortium (Science Technical Report ISSN 1610-0956).  With a lengthy statistical analysis of several systems of defining the location and motion of the pole during the past 100 years, Hopfner compared the results of several of the most well known geophysicists and concluded that a good mean figure for True Polar Wander is .00391 arcsecond/yr (12.13 centimeters moving in the direction of Longitude W65.17."

If we analyze the rate of drift directly from the geometry displayed in the Wobble Track diagram above, we can plainly see that in the period 1999-2005, the apparent drift between the centers of the two smallest circles has separated widely.  The 1999 spiral is the small black circle near the center of the diagram.  The spiral which is currently forming is shown by the red line.  Notice the huge difference in size.  The displacement between the approximate centers by dead reckoning is at least .1 arcsecond, which is some 10.2 feet or 310.9 centimeters over a 6 year period.  This is an average of .017 arcsecond/yr. or some 51.823 centimeters/yr for the period 1999-2005.

This is easily an acceleration of at least 4.25, possibly more like 5.  CURRENTLY NOW POLAR MOTION GIVES THE APPEARANCE OF MOVING IN "TRUE POLAR WANDER" AT A RATE WHICH IS ABOUT 4.25 to 5 TIMES FASTER THAN DURING THE 20TH CENTURY, USING BASE COMPARATIVES COMPUTED AT DIFFERENT TIMES BY DIFFERENT SCHOLARS IN CHINA, U.S., AND GERMANY WHICH ARE RELATIVELY RECENT. (ALL WITH THE LAST 18 YEARS).

MOST OF THIS APPARANT SHIFT IS BEING GENERATED BY A HIGHLY VISIBLE ANOMALY WHICH BEGAN IN NOVEMBER 2005 AND WHICH IS STILL ON-GOING.  In other words, this apparent shift is not really over a six year period.  It is over a much narrower window of time comprising just the last few months, which on a short time factor gives us an acceleration factor minimally in the range of 30 plus, perhaps larger.

Or not.  It is possible that the Earth will somewhat recover its more normal wobble track.  The wobble is well known to be somewhat irregular, as can be seen in the somewhat jagged appearance of the 1999 small black circle.  Thus, it is a little early to be certain about the actual magnitude of the change which is being created at the current time.  The track of the Spin Axis may begin to flatten horizontally and reduce the degree of displacement and the amount of phase shift.  But even so, most likely the shift is already too advanced to be merely a fleeting blip in the statistics. The acceleration of the drift of the average location of the Spin Axis will not completely evaporate, it is likely to remain a significant multiple, well over 2. A real shift has occurred, most likely the largest since the plots began to be made with enough points per year to produce a reasonable graph (circa 1900). 

One interesting result of this shift is the resurgence of the trend of drift along W80.  The center of this spiral for 2006 is likely to reduce the apparent drift down W65-75.

One highly interesting question which remains is whether this apparent acceleration and increase of instability in the Spin Axis will build progressively.  This we have no way to answer at the current time.

One interesting implication is the likely increase in tectonic activity which may follow during the next 20 years or so.  The last major anomaly in the MIN phase of the X WAVE was during 1936, which induced a major phase shift and sharp change in direction of the drift of the pole.  Following that anomaly, the frequency of 7.0 plus quakes nearly doubled from some 18 per year to over 30 per year.  The year following the anomaly saw many major increases in volcanism.  We are likely headed towards a similar 20 year season of increase in tectonic activity, beginning with a major increase in volcanism during 2006-08 and the occurrence of  more 7.0 plus quakes, even as many  three per month for many years afterwards.  This activity, combined with the effects of Global Warming on the creation of Super Storms, are likely to keep the news channels quite busy.

This anomaly will be of significant interest to fans of Edgar Cayce, the famed sleeping prophet.  He predicted during the mid 1930's that a new cycle of the shifting of the poles would begin in 2000/2001 and thereafter an increase in the "upheavals" in the Earth.   Since this anomaly has appeared in a "cycle" of Chandler's Wobble which began in 2000, just after the completion of the MIN PHASE in 1999, we are now seeing Cayce's prediction fulfilled with remarkable fidelity.

Here is the link to the above article by author Michael Wells Mandeville
about our changing Earth if you are interested in such things:

Major Anomaly In Chandler's Wobble - 2005/2006
last revised February 8, 2006
The Earth’s Wobble Has Paused
What this portends, no one knows...
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/polarmotion/2006_wobble_anomaly.htm 


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